Life expectancy, long-term care demand and dynamic financing mechanism simulation: an empirical study of Zhejiang Pilot, China

Table 1 Projection of the total older population with different degree of disability in Zhejiang under medium life expectancy scenario (in thousand people)

Year	Older population	With severe disability			With moderate disability			With mild disability
Year	Older population	Medium disability scenario	High disability scenario	Low disability scenario	Medium disability scenario	High disability scenario	Low disability scenario	Medium disability scenario	High disability scenario	Low disability scenario
2023	14,625	285	295	276	288	297	279	1393	1438	1349
2030	19,266	386	418	356	383	414	353	1845	1998	1703
2040	24,738	592	694	504	571	669	486	2618	3071	2230
2050	29,089	810	1029	637	753	956	592	3229	4101	2538
2060	30,728	941	1295	683	848	1166	615	3544	4874	2570
2070	29,300	1000	1489	669	869	1294	582	3503	5218	2344
2080	27,417	1027	1657	634	858	1384	530	3389	5466	2093

Notes The older population is based on the predicted mean of life expectancy. High/Low disability scenarios represent that the growth/descent rate of age-specific prevalence rate of disability will be 0.8% per year. Medium disability scenario means the age-specific prevalence rate of disability will be fixed

ISSN: 1472-6963