Model type | Variables used | Number of variables | AUC | AIC | BIC | Optimal cut-off point (ratio of deaths to survival) | Sensitivity | Specificity | PPV | NPV | Accuracy |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Model 1: Background risk | Age, Gender | 2 | .711 (.708 -.715) | 1.0710e + 006 | 1.0710e + 006 | 0.196 | 71.29 | 66.14 | 2.78 | 99.41 | 66.21 |
Model 2: Time exposure risk | 2(a): Length of stay (LOS) | 1 | .710 (.705 - .714) | 1.3155e + 006 | 1.3155e + 006 | 0.168 | 69.07 | 73.69 | 3.45 | 99.43 | 73.62 |
2(b): LOS (Weekday, weekend), admission time | 3 | .692 (.687 - .697) | 1.1960e + 006 | 1.1961e + 006 | 0.145 | 71.97 | 70.21 | 3.18 | 99.5 | 70.23 | |
2(c): LOS (Morning, evening, or night for each of seven days), admission time | 22 | .786 (.782 - .79) | 1.3464e + 006 | 1.3467e + 006 | 0.228 | 64.62 | 74.57 | 3.34 | 99.4 | 74.44 | |
Model 3: Disease model | Charlson comorbidity index | 1 | .786 (.783 - .79) | 1.0826e + 006 | 1.0826e + 006 | 0.1 | 91.54 | 66.27 | 3.56 | 99.8 | 66.60 |
Model 4: Background plus time exposure risk | 4(a): 1 + 2(a) | 3 | .73 (.726 - .739) | 0.9408e + 006 | 0.94097e + 006 | 0.196 | 76.14 | 61.25 | 2.6 | 99.5 | 61.5 |
4(b): 1 + 2(b) | 5 | .743 (.739 - .747) | 1.1519e + 006 | 1.1520e + 006 | 0.227 | 79.95 | 68.72 | 3.36 | 99.6 | 68.87 | |
4(c): 1 + 2(c) | 24 | .883 (.88 - .886) | 1.4713e + 006 | 1.4716e + 006 | 0.32 | 82.41 | 77.41 | 4.73 | 99.7 | 77.47 | |
Model 5: Full model | 5(a): 1 + 2(a) + 3 | 4 | .891 (.888 - .894) | 1.5143e + 006 | 1.5143e + 006 | 0.197 | 87.09 | 78.32 | 5.18 | 99.8 | 78.43 |
5(b): 1 + 2(b) + 3 | 6 | .893 (.89 - .896) | 1.5118e + 006 | 1.5119e + 006 | 0.224 | 86.86 | 78.27 | 5.16 | 99.8 | 78.38 | |
5(c): 1 + 2(c) + 3 | 25 | .923 (.921 - .926) | 1.6769e + 006 | 1.6772e + 006 | 0.271 | 88.18 | 81.61 | 6.13 | 99.8 | 81.71 | |
Model 6: DRG-specific models 5(c) trained and tested only single DRG subpopulation | R61: Lymphoma and Non-Acute Leukemia | 25 | .90 (.878 - .922) | 4.7669e + 003 | 4.9223e + 003 | 0.149 | 81.45 | 82.63 | 34.67 | 97.5 | 82.51 |
E02: Other Respiratory System OR Procedures | 25 | .940 (.911 - .969) | 2.6019e + 003 | 2.7281e + 003 | 0.398 | 80.0 | 95.25 | 21.05 | 99.6 | 94.99 | |
F70: Major Arrhythmia and Cardiac Arrest | 25 | .762 (.736 - .802) | 982.0188 | 1.1044e + 003 | 0.412 | 75.86 | 65.79 | 68.75 | 73.3 | 70.81 | |
E64: Pulmonary Oedema and Respiratory Failure | 25 | .85 (.807 - .894) | 466.95 | 476.32 | 0.616 | 71.34 | 88.41 | 87.5 | 73.05 | 79.32 | |
J62: Malignant Breast Disorders | 25 | .903 (.874 - .933) | 704.03 | 713.95 | 0.438 | 77.69 | 86.49 | 74.26 | 88.54 | 83.55 | |
Model 7: Emergency Department admission 5(c) trained and tested only on ED or non ED subpopulations | ED admission | 25 | .909 (.905 - .912) | 3.0017e + 005 | 3.0044e + 005 | 0.16 | 87.80 | 77.32 | 11.91 | 99.45 | 77.67 |
Non-ED admissions | 25 | .925 (.921 - .928) | 1.4626e + 006 | 1.4629e + 006 | 0.218 | 87.70 | 84.38 | 4.47 | 99.9 | 84.41 |