Table 5 Scenario analysis results
Scenario number | Without EVLP | With EVLP | ICER | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Cost | LYG | QALYs | Standard LTx | Cost | LYG | QALYs | Standard LTx | EVLP LTx | Cost per LYG | Cost per QALY gained | |
Base-case | £69,954 | 5.620 | 3.669 | 721 | £73,964 | 5.660 | 3.714 | 675 | 67 | £100,000 | £90,000 |
1) Pre-trial transitions & 10% | £ 65,778 | 5.153 | 3.304 | 620 | £69,265 | 5.199 | 3.354 | 586 | 59 | £75,000 | £71,000 |
2) EVLP rate 20% | £69,990 | 5.613 | 3.663 | 721 | £77,128 | 5.691 | 3.747 | 635 | 127 | £91,000 | £85,000 |
3) Conversion rate 45% | £70,014 | 5.631 | 3.679 | 721 | £73,014 | 5.673 | 3.725 | 675 | 67 | £71,000 | £65,000 |
4) 1:1 conversion rate | £70,136 | 5.634 | 3.675 | 721 | £71,300 | 5.675 | 3.720 | 675 | 67 | £28,000 | £26,000 |
5) Utilities from literature | £69,851 | 5.606 | 3.937 | 721 | £73,941 | 5.647 | 4.020 | 675 | 67 | £98,000 | £49,000 |
6) Increase in standard LTx in trial | £65,439 | 5.010 | 3.200 | 620 | £73,377 | 5.500 | 3.590 | 721 | 0 | £16,000 | £20,000 |
7) DEVELOP-UK one-year survival post-transplant | £72,050 | 5.630 | 3.670 | 721 | £76,128 | 5.620 | 3.680 | 675 | 67 | Standard dominant | £408,000 |
8) Same post-transplant costs plus EVLP process costs in EVLP arm | £69,970 | 5.631 | 3.673 | 721 | £71,569 | 5.674 | 3.720 | 675 | 67 | £37,000 | £34,000 |
9) Increased waiting list costs (120%) | £82,531 | 5.628 | 3.674 | 721 | £83,742 | 5.671 | 3.721 | 675 | 67 | £28,124 | £25,855 |