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Table 3 Taxonomy of types of uncertainty in cost-effectiveness models

From: Will the reformed Cancer Drugs Fund address the most common types of uncertainty? An analysis of NICE cancer drug appraisals

Type of uncertainty

Description

Handled by:

Parameter uncertainty

Uncertainty in estimates of the values of the parameters used in the cost-effectiveness model, represented by the familiar concepts of standard deviation and standard error

Probabilistic sensitivity analysis

Structural uncertainty

The assumptions made in constructing and populating cost-effectiveness models, such as the method used to extrapolate survival

Sensitivity analysis

Methodological uncertainty

The analytical approaches used

Specification of a Reference Case of standard methods

Generalisability

To what extent the model, assumptions and data represent the population for which the decision is being made

Sensitivity analysis