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Table 2 Results of hierarchical semi-log polynomial regression models on amenable age-standardized death rates from all causes (per 100,000 persons) in 22 OECD European countries (2000 to 2014)

From: Declining amenable mortality: a reflection of health care systems?

Variable

Regression

Bootstrap

P

Normal-based

coefficient (b)

standard error

95% CI

Year

−0.040

0.002

<0.001

−0.043, −0.037

Year2

<0.001

<0.001

0.538

> − 0.001, 0.001

Societal regulation (ref. Statal)

−0.420

0.179

0.019

−0.732, −0.040

Societal financing (ref. Statal)

0.505

0.206

0.014

0.092, 0.865

Private provision (ref. Statal)

−0.085

0.123

0.493

−0.306, 0.186

Societal regulation × Year

−0.003

0.004

0.467

−0.011, 0.004

Societal financing × Year

0.003

0.007

0.708

−0.010, 0.017

Private provision × Year

0.002

0.007

0.807

−0.012, 0.012

Societal regulation × Year2

0.001

<0.001

0.010

<0.001, 0.002

Societal financing × Year2

−0.001

<0.001

<0.001

−0.002, −0.001

Private provision × Year2

0.001

<0.001

<0.001

0.001, 0.002

Constant

4.393

0.053

<0.001

4.295, 4.506

Random-effects parameters

SD(Country-year)

0.026

0.005

<0.001

0.018, 0.039

SD(Country)

0.293

0.065

<0.001

0.189, 0.454

SD(Year)

0.006

0.002

<0.001

0.003, 0.010

SD(Year2)

<0.001

0.002

0.505

n/a

  1. Abbreviations: SDR, age-standardized death rate; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; SD, standard deviation; n/a, not available
  2. Notes: The quadratic term, year2, indicates the presence of a curvilinear (or nonlinear, U-shaped) trend over time. When year2 is positive and the linear term or slope, year, is negative, the trend is decreasing and slightly convex. The interaction terms (marked with the sign “×”) indicate how much year and year2 are different for different health care system types. So, year and year2 represent the linear and quadratic slope when regulation, financing and provision are issued by public actors, i.e., the reference category for each dimension. To obtain the linear decline in amenable SDRs for, say, countries with a societal regulation system, it is necessary to add the slope and the corresponding interaction term (−0.040–0.003 = −0.043). The exponential of the last term, constant, represents the average amenable SDR value for countries with public regulation, financing and provision (e 4.393 = 88.88)