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Table 2 Forecast errors for the various SARIMA models

From: Time series modelling to forecast prehospital EMS demand for diabetic emergencies

Model

MAE

MSE

MAPE

Overall

(0,1,0,12)

22.96

758.39

4.23%

 (0,1,1,12)

24.88

870.29

4.63%

 (1,1,0,12)

25.94

942.60

4.79%

 (1,1,1,12)

24.54

862.56

4.56%

 (0,1,2,12)

24.33

849.05

4.52%

 (2,1,0,12)

23.79

794.36

4.41%

 (2,1,1,12)

26.31

866.99

4.81%

 (1,1,2,12)

26.09

909.21

4.81%

Hypoglycaemia

 (0,1,0,12)

38.12

2026.34

11.58%

(0,1,1,12)

25.50

941.22

7.57%

 (1,1,0,12)

26.85

1055.83

8.04%

 (1,1,1,12)

26.63

951.10

7.75%

 (0,1,2,12)

27.34

994.96

7.90%

 (2,1,0,12)

25.17

906.32

7.35%

 (2,1,1,12)

27.84

1037.25

7.90%

 (1,1,2,12)

27.73

1063.02

8.06%

Hyperglycaemia

 (0,1,0,12)

31.26

1412.35

14.74%

(0,1,1,12)

12.94

254.31

6.26%

 (1,1,0,12)

15.49

321.36

7.43%

 (1,1,1,12)

13.22

269.20

6.40%

 (0,1,2,12)

13.38

281.07

6.49%

 (2,1,0,12)

15.35

337.68

7.41%

 (2,1,1,12)

15.24

348.73

7.41%

 (1,1,2,12)

13.78

300.21

6.67%

Female

 (0,1,0,12)

26.21

918.92

10.81%

 (0,1,1,12)

20.68

536.97

8.64%

 (1,1,0,12)

22.40

632.35

9.31%

 (1,1,1,12)

21.45

582.90

9.04%

 (0,1,2,12)

20.76

547.93

8.75%

(2,1,0,12)

14.78

360.32

6.12%

 (2,1,1,12)

17.93

414.51

7.47%

 (1,1,2,12)

19.72

482.18

8.25%

Male

 (0,1,0,12)

24.97

872.20

7.97%

 (0,1,1,12)

20.12

590.74

6.38%

 (1,1,0,12)

22.34

746.52

7.03%

(1,1,1,12)

18.85

618.37

5.99%

 (0,1,2,12)

18.97

634.50

6.03%

 (2,1,0,12)

18.78

437.23

6.11%

 (2,1,1,12)

20.70

605.84

6.56%

 (1,1,2,12)

20.54

706.99

6.51%

  1. MAE (Mean Absolute Error), MSE (Mean Square Error), MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error)
  2. Bold text indicates chosen model