Parameter | Point Estimate | SE | Distribution used in PSA | Source |
---|---|---|---|---|
Transition probability | ||||
 AIN Status |  |  |  |  |
  No AIN | 88 % | 3.2 % | Dirichlet | Santoso, 2010 [13] |
  AIN1 | 11 % | 3.1 % |  |  |
  AIN2+ | 1 % | 1.0 % |  |  |
 Screening utility of Pap |  |  |  | Santoso, 2010 [13] |
  Sensitivity | 40 % | 2.6 % | Normal |  |
  Specificity | 94 % | 2.6 % | Beta |  |
 Resection failure rate | 10 % | 1.0 % | Normal | Abbasakoor, 2005 |
 AIN1 lesion recurrence rate | 25 % | 3.2 % | Normal |  |
 AIN2+ lesion recurrence rate | 25 % | 3.1 % | Normal |  |
 Pre-cancer survival |  |  |  | Palefsky, 1998 [35] |
  Development of new AIN1 | 3.5 % | 1.3 % | Beta |  |
  Remission of AIN1 | 3.5 % | 1.5 % | Beta |  |
  Progression from AIN1 to AIN2+ | 20 % | 2.0 % | Normal |  |
 Development of cancer |  |  |  | Adapted from Malachek 2012 [36] for HIV- MSM |
  AIN2+ to Early-stage ASCC | 0.012 % | 0.001 % | Normal |  |
  AIN2+ to Late-stage ASCC | 0.006 % | 0.001 % | Normal |  |
  AIN2+ to Metastatic ASCC | 0.002 % | 0.0004 % | Normal |  |
 Cancer survival |  |  |  | Uronis 2007 |
  Progressive disease following early-stage treatment | 20 % | 2.5 % | Normal |  |
  Progressive disease following late-stage treatment | 50 % | 4.1 % | Normal |  |
  Recurrence | 15 % | 1.2 % | Normal |  |
  Progression to metastatic disease | 50 % | 2.2 % | Normal |  |
  Death from progressive disease | 80 % | 4.1 % | Beta |  |
  Death from metastatic disease | 100 % | 0.5 % | Beta |  |
Health utilities˧ | ||||
 No AIN | 0.98 | 0.028 | Beta | Insinga, 2007 [38] ǂ |
 Undetected AIN1 | 0.98 | 0.024 | Beta | Insinga, 2007 [38] |
 Undetected AIN2+ | 0·98 | 0.024 | Beta | Insinga, 2007 [38] |
 Screen-detected lesion, resection | 0·87 | 0.085 | Beta | Insinga, 2007 [38] |
 Successfully-managed ASCC |  |  |  |  |
  First year | 0·57 | 0.020 | Normal | Conway, 2012 [39] |
  Subsequent years | 0·82 | 0.068 | Beta | Melnikow, 2010 [40] ǂ |
 Progressive ASCC | 0.57 | 0.020 | Normal | Conway, 2012 [39] |
 Metastatic ASCC | 0.57 | 0.020 | Normal | Conway, 2012 [39] |
Costs | ||||
 Cost of anal swab | $6 | $6 | Gamma | BC Cancer Agency |
 Cost of anoscopy | $7.55 | $7.55 | Gamma | BC Ministry of Health |
 Cost of resecting an anal lesion | $73.96 | $73.96 | Gamma | BC Ministry of Health |
 Cost of a screening appointment | $30.15 | $30.15 | Gamma | BC Ministry of Health |
 Cost of treating ASCC | $11,625 | $11,625 | Gamma | BCCA Ŧ |
 Cost of cancer follow-up appointment | $464 | $46 | Gamma | Tsoi, 2010 [27] |
 Cost of managing progressive ASCC | $18,377 | $3634 | Normal | Czoski-Murray, 2010 [19] |
 Cost of managing metastatic disease | $36,612 | $7288 | Normal | Tsoi, 2010 [27] |