Table 3 Base-case results
A. Baseline recurrence risk from a Japan-based validation study | |||
|---|---|---|---|
Main analysis | Without 21-gene assay | With 21-gene assay | Difference |
Proportion receiving adjuvant chemotherapy | 46.2% | 26.9% | −19.2% |
10-year recurrence-free survival, % | 94.5% | 95.0% | 0.5% |
QALYs | |||
Adjuvant chemotherapy (immediate) | −0.246 | −0.144 | 0.103 |
Recurrence (long-term) | 21.093 | 21.231 | 0.139 |
Total | 20.847 | 21.088 | 0.241 |
Costs* | |||
21-gene assay | ¥350,000 | ¥350,000 | |
Acute costs | |||
Chemotherapy drugs | ¥259,298 | ¥151,257 | -¥108,041 |
Adverse events | ¥78,845 | ¥45,993 | -¥32,852 |
Patient time and transportation | ¥31,615 | ¥18,442 | -¥13,173 |
Monitoring costs until recurrence | ¥520,493 | ¥524,238 | ¥3,744 |
Costs after recurrence | ¥347,446 | ¥301,333 | -¥46,113 |
Total | ¥1,237,698 | ¥1,391,263 | ¥153,565 |
Cost per QALY gained | JPY | ¥636,752 | |
USD | $6,368 | ||
B. Baseline recurrence risk from US- and UK-based validation studies | |||
Alternative analysis | Without 21-gene assay | With 21-gene assay | Difference |
Proportion receiving adjuvant chemotherapy | 46.2% | 26.9% | −19.2% |
10-year recurrence-free survival, % | 89.4% | 89.6% | 0.3% |
QALYs | |||
Adjuvant chemotherapy (immediate) | −0.246 | −0.144 | 0.103 |
Recurrence (long-term) | 19.533 | 19.590 | 0.057 |
Total | 19.287 | 19.447 | 0.160 |
Costs* | |||
21-gene assay | ¥350,000 | ¥350,000 | |
Acute costs | |||
Chemotherapy drugs | ¥259,298 | ¥151,257 | -¥108,041 |
Adverse events | ¥78,845 | ¥45,993 | -¥32,852 |
Patient time and transportation | ¥31,615 | ¥18,442 | -¥13,173 |
Monitoring costs until recurrence | ¥478,260 | ¥479,798 | ¥1,537 |
Costs after recurrence | ¥899,695 | ¥882,593 | -¥17,102 |
Total | ¥1,747,715 | ¥1,928,084 | ¥180,369 |
Cost per QALY gained | JPY | ¥1,129,442 | |
USD | $11,294 | ||