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Table 2 Model inputs

From: Societal cost-effectiveness analysis of the 21-gene assay in estrogen-receptor–positive, lymph-node–negative early-stage breast cancer in Japan

Parameter Mean Sensitivity analysis Source
Low High
Baseline recurrence risk by 21-gene assay risk group    
Japan     
Low-risk 3.3% 1.1% 10.0% [17]
Intermediate-risk 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% [17]
High-risk 24.8% 15.7% 37.8% [17]
US and UK     
Low-risk 5.4% 3.6% 8.5% [11, 14]
Intermediate-risk 13.7% 8.6% 20.0% [11, 14]
High-risk 29.2% 21.6% 37.2% [11, 14]
Relative reduction of recurrence with aCT by 21-gene assay risk group
Low-risk 0% 0% 54% [15]
Intermediate-risk 39% 0% 76% [15]
High-risk 74% 47% 87% [15]
Costs*     
21-gene assay ¥350,000
($3,500)
¥262,500 ¥437,500 List price
Associated with aCT     
Drugs ¥561,813
($5,618)
¥280,907 ¥1,500,000 St. Luke’s Hospital (Tokyo, Japan)
Adverse events ¥170,831
($1,708)
¥85,416 ¥256,247 St. Luke’s Hospital (Tokyo, Japan), [24]
Patient time and transportation ¥68,500
($685)
¥34,250 ¥102,750 St. Luke’s Hospital (Tokyo, Japan)
Surveillance (2 visits/year) ¥25,416
($254)
¥12,708 ¥38,124 [23]
Per recurrence per year ¥2,405,924
($24,059)
¥1,202,962 ¥3,608,886 [22]
Quality of life     
No recurrence, no aCT 0.98 0.78 1.00 [23]
Progression 0.30 0.24 0.36 [26, 27]
QALY tariff of aCT 0.53 0.43 0.64 [23, 24, 28]
Other assumptions     
Age 49.8 35 75 St. Luke’s Hospital (Tokyo, Japan)
Annual mortality risk after progression 40% 20% 60% [22, 23]
Time horizon, years Lifetime    ISPOR guidelines
  1. Abbreviations: ¥, JPY Japanese Yen, $, USD United States Dollar, aCT adjuvant chemotherapy, QALY quality-adjusted–life-year, ISPOR International Society For Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research.
  2. A 3% time preference discount rate was applied in the basecase scenario (lower bound, 1%; upper bound, 5%) [21].
  3. *Per patient on average. Reported in 2013 currency. Conversion rate is 100 JPY per 1 USD.