Table 3 Participant characteristics from REGARDS data by observed (REGARDS) and model-predicted (Medicare) high risk for CHD events, from the model with pre-specified Medicare variables only
Model-predicted high risk (Medicare) | Model-predicted not high risk (Medicare) | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Characteristic* | Observed high risk (REGARDS) (true positives) N = 2,217 | Observed not high risk (REGARDS) (false positives) N = 343 | Observed high risk (REGARDS) (false negatives) N = 999 | Observed not high risk (REGARDS) (true negatives) N = 3,056 |
Age, y | 74.0 (5.7) | 74.6 (6.0) | 73.6 (5.5) | 72.4 (5.3) |
Male | 63.9 | 57.4 | 51.3 | 37.7 |
Black | 34.6 | 35.0 | 28.9 | 27.3 |
Income < $35,000/y | 58.5 | 58.0 | 59.3 | 54.3 |
Education ≤ High school graduate | 45.7 | 42 | 44.6 | 35.5 |
Current use of statins | 57.5 | 38.2 | 30.9 | 25.3 |
Total cholesterol, mg/dL | 172.0 (37.2) | 182.9 (38.6) | 190.8 (38.3) | 197.0 (36.9) |
LDL cholesterol, mg/dL | 98.7 (32.3) | 106.0 (33.9) | 114.0 (34.5) | 117.0 (32.9) |
LDL cholesterol among statin non-users, mg/dL | 113.3 (35.1) | 115.3 (34.8) | 122.7 (35.1) | 123.1 (32.5) |
HDL cholesterol, mg/dL | 47.0 (14.4) | 53.9 (17.0) | 48.9 (16.5) | 56.6 (16.5) |
Triglycerides, mg/dL | 131.2 (65.9) | 114.6 (58.1) | 139.9 (65.7) | 117.4 (55.5) |
Family history of MI | 21.9 | 19.0 | 19.0 | 17.2 |
Current cigarette smoking | 9.2 | 6.1 | 15.0 | 7.0 |
Body mass index, kg/m2 | 29.2 (5.5) | 28.4 (5.6) | 28.1 (5.2) | 27.3 (5.2) |
Systolic blood pressure, mm Hg | 132.7 (17.6) | 129.3 (15.0) | 134.2 (17.4) | 127.3 (15.2) |
Diastolic blood pressure, mm Hg | 74.9 (9.7) | 75.1 (9.0) | 77 (9.9) | 75.1 (8.9) |
Blood glucose, mg/dL | 114.2 (38.4) | 95.6 (12.6) | 102.9 (29.8) | 92.4 (10.1) |
C-reactive protein, mg/L | 4.9 (9.3) | 4.4 (10.7) | 5.2 (9.6) | 3.9 (7.1) |
Hypertension | 76.0 | 66.5 | 73.5 | 53.5 |
Metabolic syndrome | 57.8 | 32.9 | 46.7 | 23.6 |
Diabetes | 54.0 | 0.0† | 18.0 | 0.0† |
Coronary heart disease | 55.3 | 0.0† | 40.1 | 0.0† |
Acute MI in prior year | ‡ | 0.0† | ‡ | 0.0† |
Peripheral arterial disease | 5.5 | 0.0† | 4.8 | 0.0† |
Abdominal aortic aneurysm | 4.0 | 0.0† | 1.9 | 0.0† |
Carotid artery disease | 7.7 | 0.0† | 4.4 | 0.0† |
Stroke | 16.2 | 0.0† | 14.5 | 0.0† |