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Table 6 Model comparisons for death in age-specific diabetes cohorts

From: Predictive performance of comorbidity measures in administrative databases for diabetes cohorts

 

Cohort 1a(n= 29,058)

Cohort 2 (n= 41,925)

Model (df)b

c-statisticc (95% CI)

∆c d (%)

Brier score

LRTf

c-statisticc (95% CI)

∆c(%)

Brier score

LRTf

20-44 years

Base (7)

0.65 (0.56, 0.74)

.

0.01

.

0.64 (0.57, 0.71)

.

0.01

.

# diagnoses (10)

0.74 (0.65, 0.83)

0.09 (13.02)

0.01

14.1*

0.75 (0.69, 0.81)*

0.11 (16.82)

0.01

43.1*

Charlson (10)

0.81 (0.74, 0.89)*

0.16 (24.20)

0.01

50.1*

0.80 (0.74, 0.86)*

0.16 (24.61)

0.01

87.9*

Elixhausere

--

--

--

--

0.72 (0.66, 0.79)*

0.08 (12.77)

0.01

36.2*

# drugs (10)

0.72 (0.64, 0.80)

0.07 (10.26)

0.01

9.0

0.71 (0.65, 0.78)*

0.07 (11.06)

0.01

21.1*

CDS

--

--

--

--

0.70 (0.63, 0.77)

0.06 (9.35)

0.01

19.0*

45-64 years

Base (7)

0.62 (0.59, 0.65)

.

0.04

.

0.62 (0.59, 0.64)

.

0.03

.

# diagnoses (10)

0.72 (0.69, 0.74)*

0.10 (15.81)

0.04

149.0*

0.69 (0.67, 0.72)*

0.07 (12.85)

0.03

149.0*

Charlson (10)

0.76 (0.74, 0.79)*

0.14 (22.74)

0.04

345.0*

0.74 (0.72, 0.76)*

0.12 (20.33)

0.03

368.2*

Elixhauser (35)

0.77 (0.74, 0.79)*

0.15 (23.71)

0.04

416.7*

0.75 (0.73, 0.77)*

0.13 (21.95)

0.03

416.7*

# drugs (10)

0.60 (0.66, 0.71)*

0.08 (10.97)

0.04

103.5*

0.68 (0.65, 0.70)*

0.06 (9.76)

0.03

103.5*

CDS (11)

0.66 (0.63, 0.69) *

0.04 (6.29)

0.04

60.1*

0.65 (0.62, 0.68)*

0.03 (5.69)

0.03

60.1*

65-74 years

Base (7)

0.60 (0.58, 0.62)

.

0.09

.

0.59 (0.57, 0.61)

.

0.08

.

# diagnoses (10)

0.68 (0.66, 0.70)*

0.08 (13.88)

0.09

186.8*

0.66 (0.64, 0.68)*

0.07 (12.05)

0.08

186.8*

Charlson (10)

0.73 (0.71, 0.75)*

0.13 (22.24)

0.08

407.0*

0.71 (0.69, 0.73)*

0.12 (20.03)

0.07

407.0*

Elixhauser (35)

0.75 (0.73, 0.76)*

0.15 (24.58)

0.08

548.8*

0.72 (0.70, 0.74)*

0.13 (22.24)

0.07

548.8*

# drugs (10)

0.67 (0.65, 0.69)*

0.07 (11.71)

0.09

131.1*

0.65 (0.63, 0.67)*

0.06 (9.68)

0.08

131.1*

CDS (11)

0.66 (0.64, 0.68)*

0.06 (9.70)

0.09

63.0*

0.62 (0.60, 0.64)*

0.03 (4.92)

0.08

63.0*

75+ years

Base (7)

0.64 (0.62, 0.66)

.

0.16

.

0.67 (0.65, 0.68)

.

0.16

.

# diagnoses (10)

0.67 (0.66, 0.69)*

0.03 (4.84)

0.16

159.7*

0.69 (0.68, 0.70)*

0.02 (3.60)

0.16

159.7*

Charlson (10)

0.70 (0.68, 0.71)*

0.06 (8.91)

0.16

315.3*

0.71 (0.70, 0.72)*

0.04 (6.76)

0.15

318.0*

Elixhauser (35)

0.72 (0.70, 0.73)*

0.08 (12.34)

0.15

633.5*

0.74 (0.73, 0.75)*

0.07 (11.11)

0.15

633.5*

# drugs (10)

0.68 (0.66, 0.69)*

0.04 (5.47)

0.16

161.2*

0.69 (0.68, 0.70)*

0.02 (3.45)

0.16

161.2*

CDS (11)

0.67 (0.65, 0.68)*

0.03 (4.22)

0.16

95.1*

0.68 (0.67, 0.69)*

0.01 (1.95)

0.16

95.1*

  1. aCohort 1 was defined using data from fiscal years 1996/97 to 1997/98 and Cohort 2 was defined using data from 1996/97 to 2001/02; bBase model includes age, age2, sex, income quintile, geography, and recent diabetes diagnosis, and full models include these variables in addition to the specified comorbidity measure; cA c-statistic with * is significantly different (p < .01) from the c-statistic for the base model; d∆c = c-statistic for full model minus c-statistic for base model; eSome full models failed to converge due to the small number of deaths; fA likelihood ratio test (LRT) with * is statistically significant at α = .01; df=degrees of freedom; CDS Chronic Disease Score.
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BMC Health Services Research

ISSN: 1472-6963

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