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Table 1 Parameter estimates

From: Using resource modelling to inform decision making and service planning: the case of colorectal cancer screening in Ireland

Model parameter

Base-case value

Lower and upper values in sensitivity analysis

References

Performance of screening tests

gFOBT sensitivity for adenomas

11%

10%, 12%1

[13–21]

gFOBT sensitivity for CRC

36%

31%, 42%1

gFOBT specificity for adenomas and CRC

97%

96%, 98%

FIT sensitivity for adenomas

21%

19%, 22%1

[16, 22–32]

FIT sensitivity for CRC

71%

67%, 75%1

FIT specificity for adenomas and CRC

95%

94%, 96%

FSIG sensitivity for low-risk distal adenomas

65%

60%, 70%1

Expert opinion informed by [18, 20, 22]

FSIG sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk distal adenomas

74%

68%, 78%1

FSIG sensitivity for distal CRC

90%

85%, 95%1

FSIG specificity for distal adenomas and CRC

92%

90%, 95%

Uptake and compliance with screening, diagnosis and surveillance

gFOBT uptake

53%

32%, 70%

[34–37]

FIT uptake

53%

32%, 70%

FSIG uptake

39%

24%, 67%

[38–40]

COL compliance (diagnostic test or adenoma surveillance)

86%

-

[34, 35]

Performance of diagnostic tests and related parameters

COL sensitivity for low-risk adenomas

77%

-

[41, 42]

COL sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk adenomas

98%

-

COL sensitivity for CRC

98%

-

COL specificity for adenomas and CRC

97%

-

Expert opinion

CTC sensitivity for low-risk adenomas

53%

-

Expert opinion, informed by [43–46]

CTC sensitivity for intermediate/high-risk adenomas

85%

-

CTC sensitivity for CRC

85%

-

CTC specificity for adenomas and CRC

86%

-

Average number of adenomas removed per person

1.9

-

[47]

% of those with intermediate/high-risk adenomas removed in whom the adenoma was high-risk

29%

-

[34]

Harms of screening

FSIG probability of perforation (with or without polypectomy)

0.002%

-

[38]

FSIG probability of death following perforation

6.452%

-

[48]

Probability of (major) bleeding following FSIG

0.029%

-

[38]

COL probability of perforation (with polypectomy)

0.216%

-

[49]

COL probability of perforation (without polypectomy)

0.107%

-

COL probability of death following perforation

5.195%

-

[48]

Probability of (major) bleeding following COL

0.379%

-

[38]

  1. COL colonoscopy, CRC colorectal cancer, CTC CT colonography, FIT faecal immunochemical test, gFOBT guaiac faecal occult blood test, FSIG flexible sigmoidoscopy; low-risk adenoma(s), <10 mm; intermediate/high-risk adenoma(s), ≥10 mm. 1 parameters varied simultaneously in sensitivity analysis; - parameters not varied in sensitivity analyses.