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Table 4 Model comparisons for mortality and hospitalization for diabetes cohort, full and age-restricted

From: Comparing comorbidity measures for predicting mortality and hospitalization in three population-based cohorts

Model

Full cohort (n = 41,925)

Age 65+ (n = 20,025)

 

c-statistic

(95% CI)

Brier

score (SD)

Δ c(%)

c-statistic

(95% CI)

Brier

score (SD)

Δ c(%)

Death

Base model

0.781

(0.770, 0.791)

0.038

(0.166)

--

0.695

(0.680, 0.709)

0.067

(0.209)

--

+ # diagnoses

0.818

(0.809, 0.828)

0.037

(0.161)

0.037 (4.78)

0.749

(0.736, 0.762)

0.065

(0.202)

0.054 (7.81)

+ Charlson

0.830

(0.821, 0.839)

0.037

(0.161)

0.049 (6.33)

0.764

(0.752, 0.776)

0.065

(0.202)

0.070 (10.02)

+ Elixhauser

0.845

(0.836, 0.854)

0.036

(0.156)

0.064 (8.20)

0.788

(0.776, 0.800)

0.063

(0.196)

0.094 (13.50)

+ # drugs

0.799

(0.789, 0.810)

0.038

(0.163)

0.018 (2.36)

0.729

(0.715, 0.742)

0.065

(0.204)

0.034 (4.92)

+ CDS

0.789

(0.779, 0.800)

0.038

(0.165)

0.009 (1.11)

0.709

(0.695, 0.723)

0.066

(0.207)

0.014 (2.07)

One or more hospitalizations

Base model

0.610

(0.604, 0.616)

0.211

(0.174)

--

0.547

(0.539, 0.556)

0.238

(0.104)

--

+ # diagnoses

0.701

(0.695, 0.706)

0.195

(0.194)

0.091 (14.90)

0.655

(0.647, 0.663)

0.224

(0.148)

0.108 (19.63)

+ Charlson

0.666

(0.660, 0.672)

0.203

(0.187)

0.056 (9.21)

0.621

(0.613, 0.629)

0.231

(0.130)

0.074 (13.45)

+ Elixhauser

0.677

(0.671, 0.682)

0.198

(0.192)

0.067 (10.98)

0.634

(0.626, 0.642)

0.226

(0.143)

0.086 (15.76)

+ # drugs

0.641

(0.635, 0.647)

0.206

(0.181)

0.031 (5.11)

0.604

(0.596, 0.612)

0.232

(0.125)

0.056 (10.28)

+ CDS

0.624

(0.618, 0.630)

0.208

(0.177)

0.014 (2.31)

0.578

(0.570, 0.587)

0.235

(0.115)

0.031 (5.65)

Two or more hospitalizations

Base model

0.617

(0.609, 0.625)

0.113

(0.242)

--

0.546

(0.535, 0.556)

0.146

(0.245)

--

+ # diagnoses

0.726

(0.719, 0.733)

0.106

(0.230)

0.109 (17.61)

0.674

(0.665, 0.684)

0.139

(0.237)

0.129 (23.55)

+ Charlson

0.694

(0.687, 0.702)

0.110

(0.236)

0.077 (12.55)

0.643

(0.633, 0.653)

0.143

(0.240)

0.097 (17.76)

+ Elixhauser

0.709

(0.702, 0.717)

0.107

(0.232)

0.092 (14.96)

0.655

(0.645, 0.665)

0.139

(0.237)

0.109 (20.02)

+ # drugs

0.651

(0.643, 0.658)

0.111

(0.237)

0.034 (5.45)

0.603

(0.592, 0.614)

0.144

(0.241)

0.057 (10.49)

+ CDS

0.633

(0.625, 0.641)

0.112

(0.240)

0.016 (2.63)

0.580 (0.569, 0.590)

0.145

(0.242)

0.034 (6.22)

  1. Base model includes age, age2, sex, income quintile, and geography
  2. CDS = Chronic Disease Score
  3. Δc = difference in the c-statistic between the base and full models; c-statistics in boldface font are significantly different from the c-statistic for the base model, according to the method of DeLong et al. [39]