Model | Full cohort (n = 41,925) | Age 65+ (n = 20,025) | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 | c-statistic (95% CI) | Brier score (SD) | Δ c(%) | c-statistic (95% CI) | Brier score (SD) | Δ c(%) |
Death | ||||||
Base model | 0.781 (0.770, 0.791) | 0.038 (0.166) | -- | 0.695 (0.680, 0.709) | 0.067 (0.209) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.818 (0.809, 0.828) | 0.037 (0.161) | 0.037 (4.78) | 0.749 (0.736, 0.762) | 0.065 (0.202) | 0.054 (7.81) |
+ Charlson | 0.830 (0.821, 0.839) | 0.037 (0.161) | 0.049 (6.33) | 0.764 (0.752, 0.776) | 0.065 (0.202) | 0.070 (10.02) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.845 (0.836, 0.854) | 0.036 (0.156) | 0.064 (8.20) | 0.788 (0.776, 0.800) | 0.063 (0.196) | 0.094 (13.50) |
+ # drugs | 0.799 (0.789, 0.810) | 0.038 (0.163) | 0.018 (2.36) | 0.729 (0.715, 0.742) | 0.065 (0.204) | 0.034 (4.92) |
+ CDS | 0.789 (0.779, 0.800) | 0.038 (0.165) | 0.009 (1.11) | 0.709 (0.695, 0.723) | 0.066 (0.207) | 0.014 (2.07) |
One or more hospitalizations | ||||||
Base model | 0.610 (0.604, 0.616) | 0.211 (0.174) | -- | 0.547 (0.539, 0.556) | 0.238 (0.104) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.701 (0.695, 0.706) | 0.195 (0.194) | 0.091 (14.90) | 0.655 (0.647, 0.663) | 0.224 (0.148) | 0.108 (19.63) |
+ Charlson | 0.666 (0.660, 0.672) | 0.203 (0.187) | 0.056 (9.21) | 0.621 (0.613, 0.629) | 0.231 (0.130) | 0.074 (13.45) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.677 (0.671, 0.682) | 0.198 (0.192) | 0.067 (10.98) | 0.634 (0.626, 0.642) | 0.226 (0.143) | 0.086 (15.76) |
+ # drugs | 0.641 (0.635, 0.647) | 0.206 (0.181) | 0.031 (5.11) | 0.604 (0.596, 0.612) | 0.232 (0.125) | 0.056 (10.28) |
+ CDS | 0.624 (0.618, 0.630) | 0.208 (0.177) | 0.014 (2.31) | 0.578 (0.570, 0.587) | 0.235 (0.115) | 0.031 (5.65) |
Two or more hospitalizations | ||||||
Base model | 0.617 (0.609, 0.625) | 0.113 (0.242) | -- | 0.546 (0.535, 0.556) | 0.146 (0.245) | -- |
+ # diagnoses | 0.726 (0.719, 0.733) | 0.106 (0.230) | 0.109 (17.61) | 0.674 (0.665, 0.684) | 0.139 (0.237) | 0.129 (23.55) |
+ Charlson | 0.694 (0.687, 0.702) | 0.110 (0.236) | 0.077 (12.55) | 0.643 (0.633, 0.653) | 0.143 (0.240) | 0.097 (17.76) |
+ Elixhauser | 0.709 (0.702, 0.717) | 0.107 (0.232) | 0.092 (14.96) | 0.655 (0.645, 0.665) | 0.139 (0.237) | 0.109 (20.02) |
+ # drugs | 0.651 (0.643, 0.658) | 0.111 (0.237) | 0.034 (5.45) | 0.603 (0.592, 0.614) | 0.144 (0.241) | 0.057 (10.49) |
+ CDS | 0.633 (0.625, 0.641) | 0.112 (0.240) | 0.016 (2.63) | 0.580 (0.569, 0.590) | 0.145 (0.242) | 0.034 (6.22) |