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Table 4 Multiple Cox proportional hazard regression analysis of the relative risk of dying

From: Improving the evidence base of Markov models used to estimate the costs of scaling up antiretroviral programmes in resource-limited settings

Variables

 

0 to 4 months on ART

 

5 to 12 months on ART

 

13 to 24 months on ART

 

>24 months on ART

 
  

co-eff (95% CI)

p-value

co-eff (95% CI)

p-value

co-eff (95% CI)

p-value

co-eff (95% CI)

p-value

Baseline CD4 cell count (cells/µL)

<50

2.09 (1.02 to 4.28)

0.043

1.6 (0.84 to 3.06)

0.152

1 (0.57 to 1.73)

0.992

0.79 (0.51 to 1.22)

0.279

 

50-199

Referent

Current CD4 cell count (cells/µL)

<50

N/A

N/A

1.89 (0.96 to 3.72)

0.065

3.88 (2.03 to 7.41)

<0.001

3.54 (2.17 to 5.75)

<0.001

 

50-199

Referent

 

200-349

N/A

N/A

0.58 (0.25 to 1.34)

0.206

0.19 (0.06 to 0.55)

0.002

0.74 (0.38 to 1.44)

0.376

 

≥350

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.36 (0.12 to 1.09)

0.071

0.42 (0.15 to 1.17)

0.098

 

≥500

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

N/A

0.42 (0.15 to 1.23)

0.115

Baseline viral load (copies/ml)

<100 000

Referent

 

≥100 000

2.12 (0.86 to 5.21)

0.103

0.82 (0.44 to 1.53)

0.541

1.34 (0.77 to 2.33)

0.298

1.2 (0.78 to 1.85)

0.413

Current viral load (copies/ml)

<400

Referent

 

400 – 9 999

N/A

N/A

1.09 (0.44 to 2.66)

0.270

1.42 (0.57 to 3.59)

0.967

1.32 (0.56 to 3.14)

0.033

 

10 000 – 99 999

N/A

N/A

0.64 (0.29 to 1.41)

0.106

1.02 (0.44 to 2.36)

0.394

2.24 (1.07 to 4.7)

0.001

 

≥100 000

N/A

N/A

1.76 (0.89 to 3.47)

0.541

1.42 (0.63 to 3.2)

0.298

3.6 (1.68 to 7.7)

0.413

ART adherence (quartiles)

<42%

2.14 (0.69 to 6.67)

0.188

1.89 (1 to 3.57)

0.049

1.40 (0.59 to 3.29)

0.443

2.21 (0.87 to 5.63)

0.096

 

42 to 75%

3.18 (1.05 to 9.61)

0.04

1.78 (0.92 to 3.43)

0.086

0.65 (0.26 to 1.64)

0.362

2.58 (1.04 to 6.39)

0.041

 

75 to 92%

N/A

N/A

1.76 (0.9 to 3.46)

0.098

0.91 (0.37 to 2.23)

0.84

1.48 (0.56 to 3.91)

0.427

 

>92%

Referent

ARV regimen

First line

Referent

 

Second line

6.39 (0.85 to 47.75)

0.071

5.25 (2.11 to 13.06)

<0.001

1.4 (0.64 to 3.06)

0.402

1.67 (1.09 to 2.56)

0.018

NNRTI in first line

efavirenz

Referent

 

neviripine

0.6 (0.28 to 1.26)

0.175

1.26 (0.8 to 2)

0.324

1.56 (0.85 to 2.85)

0.149

0.89 (0.59 to 1.34)

0.568

Duration of monitoring prior to starting ART (months)

≥6

Referent

 

<6

2.9 (0.28 to 1.26)

0.296

1.15 (0.8 to 2)

0.692

1.67 (0.85 to 2.85)

0.328

1.05 (0.59 to 1.34)

0.890

Sex

male

0.79 (0.38 to 1.67)

0.545

1 (0.68 to 1.46)

0.998

1.15 (0.69 to 1.91)

0.595

1.26 (0.85 to 1.86)

0.257

 

female

Referent

Age at baseline (years)

<25

0.63 (0.15 to 2.7)

0.531

2.06 (0.51 to 8.4)

0.312

1.82 (0.25 to 13.22)

0.555

2.15 (0.52 to 8.83)

0.289

 

25-49

Referent

 

≥50

1.69 (0.32 to 9.03)

0.540

2.39 (0.52 to 10.98)

0.263

1.34 (0.14 to 13.03)

0.801

3.86 (0.81 to 18.35)

0.090