|  | Model 1: Demo (sex, ages) | Model 2: ACGs & Demo | Model 3: ADGs, Sel. EDCs & Demo. | Model 4: 2002 expenditures & Demo. | Model 5: ADGs, Sel. EDCs, 2002 expenditures & Demo. |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Outcome: 2003 top 0.5% user (N = 242) | ||||||
C-Statistics | 0.773 | 0.849 | 0.893 | 0.904 | 0.913 | |
Top 0.5% predicted group | % identified | 0.52% | 0.49% | 0.48% | 0.49% | 0.48% |
 | sensitivity | 0.021 | 0.037 | 0.343 | 0.450 | 0.450 |
 | PPV | 0.019 | 0.037 | 0.347 | 0.447 | 0.456 |
Top 5% predicted group | % identified | 5.03% | 4.85% | 4.89% | 4.94% | 4.83% |
 | sensitivity | 0.169 | 0.360 | 0.665 | 0.698 | 0.707 |
 | PPV | 0.017 | 0.036 | 0.067 | 0.069 | 0.072 |
Outcome: 2003 top 1% user (N = 492) | ||||||
C-Statistics | 0.797 | 0.860 | 0.893 | 0.900 | 0.907 | |
Top 1% predicted group | % identified | 0.98% | 0.98% | 1.01% | 1.00% | 0.99% |
 | sensitivity | 0.051 | 0.138 | 0.313 | 0.396 | 0.402 |
 | PPV | 0.051 | 0.140 | 0.310 | 0.396 | 0.403 |
Top 5% predicted group | % identified | 4.84% | 4.86% | 4.88% | 4.94% | 4.89% |
 | sensitivity | 0.228 | 0.384 | 0.598 | 0.622 | 0.650 |
 | PPV | 0.047 | 0.079 | 0.122 | 0.125 | 0.133 |
Outcome: 2003 top 5% user (N = 2,467) | ||||||
C-Statistics | 0.815 | 0.869 | 0.884 | 0.885 | 0.897 | |
Top 5% predicted group | % identified | 4.89% | 4.89% | 4.97% | 4.89% | 4.93% |
 | sensitivity | 0.258 | 0.365 | 0.417 | 0.467 | 0.476 |
 | PPV | 0.264 | 0.373 | 0.419 | 0.477 | 0.482 |